Withdrawal Rate
How much can you safely spend from your portfolio each year?
Your Portfolio
Retirement Duration
Real return = nominal return minus inflation. A typical estimate is 5–7% nominal minus 2–3% inflation = 2–5% real.
Your Withdrawal Rate
4.00%
Historically safe for 30-year retirements
Annual Withdrawal
$40,000
Monthly Withdrawal
$3,333
Portfolio at Year 30
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Survival Estimate
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Historical Success Rates
Based on US market data (Trinity Study / FIRECalc methodology). Percentage of 30-year rolling periods where portfolio survived.
| Rate | 30 yrs | 40 yrs | 50 yrs |
|---|
Portfolio Balance Over Time
Projected portfolio value assuming constant real returns. Real market returns vary — this shows the mathematical path.
Common questions
What is the 4% rule?
The 4% rule is a retirement guideline suggesting you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year one, then adjust for inflation each year, with a high probability of the portfolio lasting 30 years. It originates from the 1998 Trinity Study analyzing historical US market returns.
Is 4% safe for early retirement?
For very early retirees (retiring at 40 with a 50+ year horizon), 4% carries meaningful failure risk. Many early retirees use 3–3.5% for extra safety, or plan to be flexible — reducing spending if markets underperform.
What does "portfolio survival rate" mean?
It's the percentage of historical 30-year periods where your portfolio did not run to zero at a given withdrawal rate. A 95% survival rate means 19 out of 20 historical periods ended with money remaining.
Should I adjust my withdrawal for inflation?
Yes. The 4% rule assumes annual inflation adjustments. Without adjustments your real spending power erodes over time. This calculator shows both nominal and inflation-adjusted withdrawal amounts.
What is the difference between SWR and WR?
SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate) is the maximum rate historically shown to sustain withdrawals over a given period. WR (Withdrawal Rate) is simply your actual annual withdrawal divided by your portfolio — it may or may not be "safe" depending on the rate.
How it works
Withdrawal Rate: WR = Annual Spending ÷ Portfolio Value
Portfolio balance at year n: B(n) = B(n−1) × (1 + r) − W, where r = real return, W = annual withdrawal
Survival check: Portfolio survives if B(n) ≥ 0 for all years 1 through N.
The historical success rates shown are approximations based on published research (Trinity Study). Actual future returns will differ.